PASCAL'S WAGER

Hello, fellow seekers wandering on the road to the afterlife! Have you ever lain awake at night, staring at the ceiling, pondering the big questions? You know, like "What happens after we die?" or "Is there really a higher power out there?" If you're similar to me, these thoughts have the potential to spiral into a deep and complex realm. I call them "rabbit holes." :) I was recently reading a book by Gigerenzer and Todd entitled Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart*. In it they mention Blaise Pascal. I had run across Pascal when teaching the history of psychology. He is credited with making the first mechanical calculator in the 1600s. But I had not heard of “Pascal’s Wager” until reading Gigerenzer’s book. It made me sit up and take notice. I immediately saw the importance of his idea in relation to one’s decision-making about eternity.

*Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & ABC Research Group, T. (2000). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press.

Blaise Pascal was a 17th-century French mathematician, physicist, and philosopher. He was basically a genius ahead of his time. But Pascal wasn't just about numbers. He was deeply religious and wrestled with faith in a world full of doubt. In his posthumously published work, “Pensées” (which means "Thoughts"), he laid out what we now call "Pascal's Wager." It's not a formal proof of God's existence but rather a practical argument for why believing might be the most rational choice.

Pascal's Wager boils down to this: You have two options, believe in God or don't. There is no neutral ground. There can be no alternative. If one does not believe, that person will live in alignment with their unbelief. If one does believe, their lifestyle will reveal it. In his scenario, there are only two possibilities: God exists or God doesn't.

Here is the way it lays out. If you believe that God exists, and He does exist, Bingo! You get eternal peace and life forever in heaven. Infinite reward. If you believe and God doesn't exist, it’s no big deal. You've lost a bit of time or freedom in this life, but nothing catastrophic. In fact, you would still win in this life because of fewer hangovers, addictions, physical debilitation, etc.

If you don't believe in God and He does exist, then you could face serious consequences. Eternal damnation. Infinite loss. Separation forever from God and all one loves. If you don't believe and God doesn't exist, then so what?! You live your life as is, with no afterlife surprises.

Pascal's point? The potential upside of believing (eternal happiness) is infinitely greater than the downside (a finite, earthly sacrifice like going to church or living morally). On the other hand, not believing risks infinite punishment for... what? A temporary sense of freedom? From a risk-reward perspective, believing is the safer bet. It's like hedging your bets in a game where the house edge is eternity itself.

What makes this wager so evocative to me is its reliance on infinity. In everyday decisions, we weigh finite costs and benefits, like choosing between pizza or a salad based on calories and taste. But throw eternity into the mix, and everything changes. A finite life, such as 80 years or even 100 years, is insignificant compared to eternity. Pascal argued that even if the probability of God's existence is tiny, the infinite payoff makes belief worthwhile. It's probability theory meets theology.

Now, let's focus on eternity because that's where the wager gets its real power and its fearsomeness. Eternity isn't just "a long time." It's endless, boundless time. A story I used to tell in home Bible studies to try to help the listener understand how long eternity would be may be beneficial here. The story goes that if a bird flew from one side of the earth to the other once every thousand years and picked up one grain of sand and flew it back to its original home, when every grain of sand was moved from one side of the earth to the other, that would be one second in eternity. Here’s another symbolism. If Earth were a gigantic stainless steel ball, and once every thousand years, someone took a silk handkerchief that would always remain and brushed it against the ball, once it would wear the earth-sized ball down to nothingness; that would be the first second in eternity. Imagine living forever in paradise, a place of endless joy, no pain, reunions with loved ones, and maybe even unlimited meals with the Lord (Think marriage supper of the Lamb :). On the flip side, picture eternal suffering in hellfire! That's the stuff nightmares are made of, filled with unending regret, isolation, or whatever your version of hell is.

Pascal's insight is that eternity skews the math. In finite terms, atheism might seem appealing if it lets you live without religious constraints. But when the stakes are infinite, those constraints become negligible. It's like saying, "Sure, I'll skip that party to study for a test that could change my entire future." Only here, the "future" is forever.

This ties into broader ideas about human existence. We all grapple with mortality. Religions often promise eternity as a salve for that fear. It was Karl Marx who called it the “opium of the masses.” But Pascal's Wager went further. Instead of trying to prove God or eternity exists, he was saying, "Assume it might, and act accordingly."

Of course, no idea is bulletproof, and Pascal's Wager has its critics. It assumes a binary choice: Christian God or nothing. What about other religions? I would say iif one chose to believe in other gods, and they bet on the wrong deity, that person might still end up in hot water (pun intended). Philosophers like Richard Dawkins call it a "false dichotomy."

In the end, "Pascal's Wager" isn't about converting any of us on the spot. It's a nudge to consider the infinite in a finite world. It reminds us that our choices echo beyond the here and now. The famous line in Gladiator (2000) comes to mind when the actor playing the role of Maximus Decimus Meridius said, “What we do in life echoes in eternity.” Personally, I find it comforting on good days, a reminder to live with purpose. On bad days, it's a stark warning against complacency.

I'd love to hear your thoughts. Life's too short (or is it eternal?) not to discuss the big stuff.

Thanks for reading! If this sparked something, share it with a friend who's also pondering eternity. Until next time, keep thinking.